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渣打北亞區投資總監鄭子豐:基礎情境假設油價有七成機會數周內見頂 恒指12個月內或回升至28,000-29,000點
渣打財富方案首席投資辦公室發表第二季環球市場展望。渣打北亞區投資總監鄭子豐表示,中東衝突何時結束仍存在高度不確定性,但最有可能的情況是衝突在幾星期內而非幾個月內緩和,不過要達成明確解決方案過程仍充滿變數。短期內油價繼續易受新聞事件影響,或引發市場波動加劇,為進一步分散投資、趁低吸納提供機會。投資者適宜均衡配置環球股票,略微偏重防守型優質股多於增長股,當中偏好...
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渣打北亞區投資總監鄭子豐:基礎情境假設油價有七成機會數周內見頂 恒指12個月內或回升至28,000-29,000點
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渣打財富方案首席投資辦公室發表第二季環球市場展望。渣打北亞區投資總監鄭子豐表示,中東衝突何時結束仍存在高度不確定性,但最有可能的情況是衝突在幾星期內而非幾個月內緩和,不過要達成明確解決方案過程仍充滿變數。

短期內油價繼續易受新聞事件影響,或引發市場波動加劇,為進一步分散投資、趁低吸納提供機會。投資者適宜均衡配置環球股票,略微偏重防守型優質股多於增長股,當中偏好具有吸引力股息率和/或回購潛力的股份。地區佈局方面,偏好美國及亞洲除日本以外地區,對中國及香港市場維持正面看法。

該行的基礎情境假設是70%機會率油價或在幾星期內見頂,恒生指數12個月內有機會回升至28,000-29,000點。鄭子豐提醒,如果油價尚未見頂,和/或更多數據顯示聯儲局不會在今年下半年恢復減息,港股可能跌至21,500-22,500點。

該行亦長線看好黃金。黃金短期波動惟長線具結構性因素支持,包括地緣政治風險升溫,新興市場央行需求強勁,目標價5,750美元。 (ad/u)

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