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經合組織:伊朗戰爭抹殺全球經濟增長預期 加劇通脹
經濟合作與發展組織(OECD)周四警告指,中東地區日益升級的衝突,已將全球經濟從更強勁的增長軌道上擊落,因為霍爾木茲海峽的能源運輸幾近停滯,將推高通脹。伊朗戰爭爆發前,全球經濟原本有望實現超出預期的強勁增長,但該前景現在幾乎已消失。全球GDP增長現預計將從去年的3.3%放緩至2026年的2.9%,然後在2027年回升至3%。隨著能源價格飆升,G20的通脹預計...
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經合組織:伊朗戰爭抹殺全球經濟增長預期 加劇通脹
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經濟合作與發展組織(OECD)周四警告指,中東地區日益升級的衝突,已將全球經濟從更強勁的增長軌道上擊落,因為霍爾木茲海峽的能源運輸幾近停滯,將推高通脹。伊朗戰爭爆發前,全球經濟原本有望實現超出預期的強勁增長,但該前景現在幾乎已消失。

全球GDP增長現預計將從去年的3.3%放緩至2026年的2.9%,然後在2027年回升至3%。

隨著能源價格飆升,G20的通脹預計今年將比先前預期高出1.2個百分點至4%,之後在2027年降至2.7%。

在個別經濟體方面,美國的年度GDP增長率預計將從2026年的2%放緩至2027年的1.7%,因為與人工智能相關的強勁投資將逐漸被實際收入增長和消費支出的放緩所抵消。美國的整體通脹率現在預測將在2026年達到4.2%,比先前的預測上升了1.2個百分點。

在中國,預計經濟增長將在今年放緩至4.4%,2027年為4.3%,均符OECD之前的預測。歐元區GDP增長預計將在2026年下降至0.8%,因能源價格上漲對經濟活動造成壓力,在2027年因防務支出增加而回升至1.2%,比去年12月的預測大幅下調,當時OECD預測2026年增長1.2%,2027年為1.4%。

在日本,2026年和2027年的經濟增長預計均為0.9%,保持不變,因為能源進口成本上升抵消了強勁的企業投資。


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