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華僑銀行:若布油升至每桶100美元及美聯儲推遲減息 或削港今年增長預測至2.2%
華僑銀行香港經濟師姜靜表示,如國際油價持續高企,市場對通脹預期上升,會擔心美國等地央行不減息之餘,更可能掉頭加息,將對香港經濟造成負面影響。假設布油於第二季每桶見100美元,同時美聯儲推後減息的情況下,姜靜將本港今年本地生產總值(GDP)增長預測由2.6%下調至2.2%,並將本港今年消費物價指數(CPI)由1.6%上調至1.9%。姜靜提到,美國國債息率已抽高...
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華僑銀行:若布油升至每桶100美元及美聯儲推遲減息 或削港今年增長預測至2.2%
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華僑銀行香港經濟師姜靜表示,如國際油價持續高企,市場對通脹預期上升,會擔心美國等地央行不減息之餘,更可能掉頭加息,將對香港經濟造成負面影響。假設布油於第二季每桶見100美元,同時美聯儲推後減息的情況下,姜靜將本港今年本地生產總值(GDP)增長預測由2.6%下調至2.2%,並將本港今年消費物價指數(CPI)由1.6%上調至1.9%。

姜靜提到,美國國債息率已抽高,但港元拆息(HIBO)卻下行,反映有部分資金流入香港,由於港美息差較大,預期沽港元買美元的套息交易會持續,港滙有機會觸及弱方兌換保證,屆時銀行體系結餘將進一步減少,令HIBOR抽升。

她指現時HIBOR過低,今年一個月拆息合理水平應介乎2.5厘至2.6厘水平。6月底半年結前會較高,估計在2.6厘至2.7厘左右。(ha/j)

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