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M Stanley: Mkt Overly Worried about XPENG-W (09868.HK) Potential Fundraising, Margin Pressure
Morgan Stanley wrote in a report that the H-shares of XPENG-W (09868.HK) and its US shares (XPEV.US) have adjusted by 12% to 14% in the past 2 days, and are down by 2% to 4% versus...
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M Stanley: Mkt Overly Worried about XPENG-W (09868.HK) Potential Fundraising, Margin Pressure
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Morgan Stanley wrote in a report that the H-shares of XPENG-W (09868.HK)  -2.300 (-3.302%)    Short selling $134.64M; Ratio 31.434%   and its US shares (XPEV.US)     have adjusted by 12% to 14% in the past 2 days, and are down by 2% to 4% versus the NASDAQ and HSCEI over the same period. The weak sentiment in the sector has fuelled concerns about potential capital raising and gross profit pressure on XPENG.

However, the broker believed the market was overreacting, saying that the G9's aggressive pricing and simplified model/specification mix have generated constructive feedback from the channel. The price/performance ratio of the G9 Max has also attracted some G6 users to upgrade, which the broker believed is not a bad thing.

Related NewsJPM: CN Semi-autonomous Driving Mkt To Hail Inflection Pt in 2024; BYD & Leapmotor Preferred among Autos
Morgan Stanley expected the G6 to remain XPENG's sales pillar, accounting for over 60% of orders, but supply constraints will remain a major issue, with long-term bottlenecks inevitably dampening demand. The broker expected the G6 to remain the dominant player in terms of market share change at the end of the year, with the G9, P7i and navigation system "City NGP" as the icing on the cake.

In addition, investors saw the aggressive pricing of the G9 as a double-edged sword that may affect XPENG's gross margins. However, the broker does not expect gross margins to be significantly diluted, as the current G6, the improved G9 and the upcoming lithium iron phosphate (LFP) version of the P7i should have gross margins in the mid-to-high single digits.

On potential fundraising concerns, the broker said that large EV startups like XPENG are still in the "banknote-burning" stage, so it can't rule out that any potential fundraising will affect share price performance, and that the stock market may react even more sharply in a tough macro environment. Nevertheless, XPENG's healthy cash position, improved operating cash flow, strong credit facilities, as well as a US$700 million investment from Volkswagen could provide XPENG with a better opportunity to pursue any capital raising.

Related NewsM Stanley Expects CN Auto Price War to Continue into 1Q24, Keeps BYD at Equalweight
Morgan Stanley has a US$25.4 target price on XPENG's US shares and an Overweight rating.

(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2023-11-29 12:25.) (Real-time Streaming US Stocks Quote; Except All OTC quotes are at least 15 minutes delayed.)

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