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<Research>CICC Foresees Marginal Revival in H Shrs' 1Q Earnings; Improvements in Energy, Education, Telco
CICC released a report that Chinese stocks listed overseas (Chinese stocks listed in HK and Chinese ADRs in the U.S.) basically did their 2023 annual report results disclosure. The...
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<Research>CICC Foresees Marginal Revival in H Shrs' 1Q Earnings; Improvements in Energy, Education, Telco
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CICC released a report that Chinese stocks listed overseas (Chinese stocks listed in HK and Chinese ADRs in the U.S.) basically did their 2023 annual report results disclosure. The broker conducted a bottom-up summary of the 4Q23 and 2023 report results of nearly 400 Chinese stocks listed overseas. Specifically, the earnings growth of Chinese stocks listed overseas in 2023 was 1%. Their recovery from the epidemic since 2023 was not as swift as the market anticipated, mainly due to the lack of willingness of the private sector to extend credit and which led to YoY fiscal contraction and limited overall credit expansion. As a result, on the basis of negative earnings growth of 4.6% in 2022, earnings continued to decline by 1.8% YoY in 1H23, before turning positive by 4.7% YoY in 2H23, on the back of the intensive efforts of real estate and fiscal policies. For the full year, earnings of Chinese stocks listed overseas grew marginally by 1% in HKD terms.

For 1Q24, CICC expected Hong Kong stocks’ earnings to recover faintly. Currently, less than 5% of Chinese companies listed overseas have disclosed their results for 1Q24. In terms of sectors, industrial, communication services and information technology sectors contributed the most to earnings growth, contributing 2.18%, 1.83% and 0.72% respectively, while raw materials (minus 0.62%) and real estate (minus 0.21%) remained major drags.

Related NewsM Stanley Names Stocks Best Positioned to Ride on CN SOE Reforms (Table)
The broker pointed out that sectors of non-ferrous, energy, education and training, telecom thrived, whereas technology hardware’s performance may be under pressure. Combined industry analyst opinions of CICC with market consensus findings, the broker had several observations. Firstly, the non-ferrous metal sector saw demand repair in spring, asset allocation tilted towards the resource sector as uncertainty over the geopolitical situation increased, and the performance of gold and other related targets was more likely to exceed expectations. For example, SD GOLD (01787.HK)  +0.260 (+1.466%)    Short selling $3.84M; Ratio 2.587%   , ZIJIN MINING (02899.HK)  0.000 (0.000%)    Short selling $126.69M; Ratio 19.574%   and CMOC (03993.HK)  +0.200 (+2.621%)    Short selling $14.83M; Ratio 4.348%   were expected to post earning upsurge YoY. Secondly, the oil and gas sector benefited from OPEC’s extension of production cuts, which shored up oil price expectation. Related companies (e.g. CHINA OILFIELD (02883.HK)  +0.080 (+0.909%)    Short selling $9.17M; Ratio 11.331%   )’ results may improve YoY. Thirdly, the thermal power sector has turned losses into wins, with year-on-year improvement and a better-than-expected trend. Fourthly, the education sector recovered overall, and software services sector harnessed AI-related applications. Fifthly, the telecom sector continued to benefit from the steady returns and defensive attributes. Sixthly, the performance of the technology hardware sector may decline due to the overall pressure on the performance of the consumer electronics sector.
(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2024-05-27 16:25.)

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