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<Research Report>UBS Cuts HSI Target to 20,300; Adds CATHAY to Most-preferred List & Boots CKH, SHKP
UBS released a strategic report on the Hong Kong market. Based on the broker's recent downward revision of GDP forecasts for China and Hong Kong, as well as the downward revisi...
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<Research Report>UBS Cuts HSI Target to 20,300; Adds CATHAY to Most-preferred List & Boots CKH, SHKP
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UBS released a strategic report on the Hong Kong market. Based on the broker's recent downward revision of GDP forecasts for China and Hong Kong, as well as the downward revision of profit forecasts after the corporate results period, the broker trimmed its target for the HSI from 21,700 to 20,300. This is based on a CAGR of 8% for EPS from 2022 to 2024 and a P/E ratio of 9.5x. The broker also cut its base case target for the MSCI Hong Kong Index by 12% to 9,900.

On a bottom-up basis, the broker expected MSCI Hong Kong Index constituents to achieve EPS growth of 6% this year and 14% next year. Against a backdrop of tight liquidity and slow economic growth, the broker continued to adopt a defensive strategy in Hong Kong, favouring dividend-yielding and travel-related stocks.

The broker's forward P/E valuation of the MSCI Hong Kong Index for the next 12 months has dropped significantly from 14.2x in December 2022 to 11.4x currently, due to lower earnings growth expectations, intensifying macro concerns in China and rising interest rates in the US.

The broker has added CATHAY PAC AIR (00293.HK)  -0.300 (-3.468%)    Short selling $29.66M; Ratio 17.560%   to its Hong Kong most-preferred list in light of its recent strong free cash flow. On the other hand, CKH HOLDINGS (00001.HK)  -0.450 (-1.070%)    Short selling $26.55M; Ratio 16.042%   and SHK PPT (00016.HK)  -0.400 (-0.502%)    Short selling $86.56M; Ratio 23.087%   were removed from the list due to lower-than-expected 1H23 earnings and dividend risk.

UBS's most-preferred list for Hong Kong stocks includes CATHAY, AIA (01299.HK)  -0.650 (-1.043%)    Short selling $141.91M; Ratio 11.868%   , SAMSONITE (01910.HK)  -0.300 (-1.149%)    Short selling $11.81M; Ratio 14.112%   , SANDS CHINA LTD (01928.HK)  -0.520 (-2.537%)    Short selling $50.61M; Ratio 18.553%   , GALAXY ENT (00027.HK)  -0.450 (-1.117%)    Short selling $62.34M; Ratio 14.810%   , CKI HOLDINGS (01038.HK)  -0.250 (-0.526%)    Short selling $23.64M; Ratio 40.055%   and HKT-SS (06823.HK)  -0.020 (-0.219%)    Short selling $5.12M; Ratio 14.863%   .

(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2024-05-23 16:25.)

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