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HK Govt Lowers FY20 Economic Growth Forecast to Negative 6-8%
The Government Economist, Mr Andrew Au, described the economic situation in the second quarter of 2020 and the latest GDP and price forecasts for 2020.Hong Kong's short-term ec...
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HK Govt Lowers FY20 Economic Growth Forecast to Negative 6-8%
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2020/08/14 16:52
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The Government Economist, Mr Andrew Au, described the economic situation in the second quarter of 2020 and the latest GDP and price forecasts for 2020.

Hong Kong's short-term economic outlook is still highly uncertain. Considering the actual outturn in the first half of the year, and the difficult and uncertain economic environment in the second half, but also the cushioning effects of the Government's massive relief measures, the real GDP growth forecast for 2020 as a whole is revised downwards to -6% to -8% in the current round of review, from -4% to -7% as announced in late April. If the current wave of local infection can be contained within a short time and barring any further sharp deterioration in the external environment, economic performance for 2020 as a whole can hopefully fall within the upper half of the range forecast. The Government will continue to closely monitor the situation and roll out measures as necessary to maintain the vitality of the economy and pave the way for a speedy recovery once the threat of the pandemic recedes. For reference, the latest forecasts by private sector analysts range from -4.7% to -8.5%, averaging around -6.6%.

On the inflation outlook, with the impact of the surge in pork prices since May last year having largely dissipated, inflationary pressures will likely ease further in the rest of the year amid subdued economic conditions. Taking into account the actual outturn in the first half of the year and the impending waiver of one-month public housing rentals in September, the forecast rates of underlying and headline inflation rates for 2020 as a whole are revised downwards to 1.8% and 0.8% respectively, from 2.2% and 1.4% in the May round of review.
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