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景順:美伊達成完整協議仍有變數 料油價將於高位徘徊
景順亞太區環球市場策略師趙耀庭表示,美伊於周三(8日)亞洲市場開市前宣布達成為期14天的暫時停火,亞洲股市顯著反彈,布蘭特原油價格急跌,美元回軟。不過,他認為地緣政治不確定性仍未消除。要令這輪風險偏好反彈得以延續,美國、伊朗及以色列須能夠將停火轉化為持久的和平。趙耀庭對後市保持審慎樂觀,但認為在實現「永久和平」的局面之前,投資者需留意尚存的諸多複雜問題。伊朗...
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景順:美伊達成完整協議仍有變數 料油價將於高位徘徊
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景順亞太區環球市場策略師趙耀庭表示,美伊於周三(8日)亞洲市場開市前宣布達成為期14天的暫時停火,亞洲股市顯著反彈,布蘭特原油價格急跌,美元回軟。不過,他認為地緣政治不確定性仍未消除。要令這輪風險偏好反彈得以延續,美國、伊朗及以色列須能夠將停火轉化為持久的和平。

趙耀庭對後市保持審慎樂觀,但認為在實現「永久和平」的局面之前,投資者需留意尚存的諸多複雜問題。伊朗提出的「十點方案」與美國總統特朗普今年3月提出的「十五點和平方案」存在明顯分歧,例如雙方就伊朗鈾濃縮計劃應予保留還是全面拆除的問題上,依然僵持不下。此外,雙方在多項關鍵議題上亦意見不一。未來談判勢必艱鉅,最終能否達成完整協議仍充滿變數。

在經濟層面,市場最關注的是霍爾木茲海峽是否能按伊朗承諾恢復通航。根據伊朗的建議方案,該國承諾在技術限制考量下,透過與本國武裝部隊協調,為船隻提供安全通行安排。這意味着,即使未來兩周開始有船隻穿越海峽,航運量亦未必能迅速回復至衝突前的水平。

能源市場已反映相關現實。周三亞洲交易時段,西德州中質原油(WTI )及布蘭特原油價格回落至約每桶95美元,較周二晚接近110美元顯著回落,但仍遠高於衝突前約70美元的水平。鑑於地緣政治風險仍在,油價料將於高位徘徊。

趙耀庭指,亞洲經濟體高度依賴能源進口,因此對中東衝突造成的影響尤為敏感。倘若霍爾木茲海峽逐步重開,將為亞洲政策制定者與伊朗就船舶安全通行展開磋商提供契機,有助紓緩短期能源及商品價格壓力,並減輕通脹風險。

投資方面,趙耀庭認為短期內的局勢降溫有望帶動股市續升,非美國市場或將跑贏。受油價回落及通脹壓力下降影響,債市亦可能造好。隨着投資者評估停火的持久性,美元或進一步走弱。

就亞洲市場而言,自中東衝突以來,亞洲科技及AI類股份出現明顯超賣;反觀美股及AI相關股份表現較佳,因為投資者將偏好轉向被視為避險及受惠於國防相關科技的資產。只要停火局勢得以維持,上述趨勢料於未來數周出現逆轉。長遠而言,中東局勢或加速亞洲出現結構上的轉變,包括更快轉向替代能源及可再生能源。(ss/w)

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