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施羅德投資降全球今年GDP增長預測至2.5%
施羅德投資環球經濟研究部主管David Rees表示,2026年年初時樂觀預期經濟增長將跑贏大市,惟中東局勢突變旋即引發通脹衝擊,逼使該行下調經濟增長預測。能源價格成為市場焦點,該行預期價格高企的局面將維持至第三季。然而,食品和製成品所帶來的廣泛物價壓力亦不容忽視,很可能蠶食民眾的實際收入,並進一步拖累經濟增長。因此將全年全球國內生產總值(GDP)增長預測由...
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施羅德投資環球經濟研究部主管David Rees表示,2026年年初時樂觀預期經濟增長將跑贏大市,惟中東局勢突變旋即引發通脹衝擊,逼使該行下調經濟增長預測。能源價格成為市場焦點,該行預期價格高企的局面將維持至第三季。然而,食品和製成品所帶來的廣泛物價壓力亦不容忽視,很可能蠶食民眾的實際收入,並進一步拖累經濟增長。因此將全年全球國內生產總值(GDP)增長預測由原先的2.9%下調至2.5%,並將2027年的預測由2.7%調低至2.6%。

對比2022年俄烏衝突引發的大宗商品價格衝擊,全球經濟增長動力有所減弱,政策刺激力度大幅收斂,且一般家庭普遍缺乏豐厚儲蓄以抗衡當前物價升幅。該行預期各大主要經濟體仍能勉強避過衰退,儘管這只是一線之差,但該行相信整體經濟增長放緩應可有效遏制第二輪顯著通脹風險,從而免卻了重啟加息的必要。

然而,這場供應衝擊對各地區的影響卻不盡相同。淨能源進口地區如歐元區、日本、部分亞洲國家及英國,預料將較受到衝擊;相比之下,美國作為淨能源出口國,以及擁有龐大能源儲備及替代能源(如煤炭)的中國,其受影響程度相對較低。

美國方面,與伊朗的衝突已顯著打亂了聯儲局短期的政策算盤。施羅德投資指,單從經濟基本面來看,2026年根本沒有減息的理據,而現時減息的機會無疑更低。其基準預測是今年聯儲局將極力避免加息,並於2027年重拾寬鬆政策步調,惟正反預測僅一線之差。(ha/da)

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