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長飛光纖光纜(06869.HK)漲逾13% 大摩升目標價至230元 高盈利預期已反映
長飛光纖光纜(06869.HK)今日高開3.95%,最高見263.8元。現報263.8元,升13.32%,成交1,006.15萬股,涉資25.4億元。摩根士丹利發表研究報告指,長飛光纖光纜的股價自2025年第四季以來顯著反彈,已很大程度上反映了投資者對其高盈利的預期,意味著若未來的增長未能跟上步伐,將面臨執行風險。雖然受惠於AI驅動的強勁需求,短期基本面依然...
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長飛光纖光纜(06869.HK)漲逾13% 大摩升目標價至230元 高盈利預期已反映
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長飛光纖光纜(06869.HK)  +24.800 (+10.653%)    Short selling $318.43M; Ratio 4.124%   今日高開3.95%,最高見263.8元。現報263.8元,升13.32%,成交1,006.15萬股,涉資25.4億元。

摩根士丹利發表研究報告指,長飛光纖光纜的股價自2025年第四季以來顯著反彈,已很大程度上反映了投資者對其高盈利的預期,意味著若未來的增長未能跟上步伐,將面臨執行風險。雖然受惠於AI驅動的強勁需求,短期基本面依然穩固,但隨著全球新產能加速擴張,預計中期內將面臨週期正常化及價格壓力。

該行指出,公司目前的股價意味著未來12個月內每季利潤需要達到25億元人民幣,即2026年第一季業績的4至5倍。

報告提到,光纖價格因供應緊張已觸及七年高位。AI數據中心的快速擴張驅動了前所未有的光纖需求,其需求量是傳統數據中心的多倍。然而,來自無人機的需求則受地緣政治因素影響,前景仍具不確定性。在供應端方面,海外主要廠商正積極擴產,而中國生產商的擴產態度則較為審慎。該行預計,歷史高位毛利率將吸引全球產能擴張,並可能引致光纖價格在2027至2028年回落。股價目前已大致反映了2026至2027年間較高的盈利預期,且認為公司帶來正面驚喜的機會較低。

摩根士丹利因應光纖價格顯著上漲及行業正面展望,大幅上調長飛光纖光纜的修訂預測。其中,將2026年及2027年收入預測分別調高64%及84%,並將這兩年的淨利潤預測分別上調343%及553%至75.07億元人民幣及127.3億元人民幣。該行將長飛光纖光纜H股目標價由47港元大幅上調至230港元,但維持「與大市同步」評級;長飛光纖光纜(601869.SH)  +36.250 (+8.869%)   A股目標價由43.93元人民幣,大幅上調至202.25元人民幣,評級「減持」。(ad/u)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-06-03 16:25.) (A Shares quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.)

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