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《商品》施羅德:黃金牛市未結束
對於金牛市是否就此告終,施羅德投資資深投資組合(黃金與大宗商品)經理James Luke表示,極端的油價升幅,在短期內很可能對所有資產類別造成衝擊,黃金亦不例外。但宏觀環境截然不同。該行認為,要從資產配置的角度去審視黃金的中長期風險回報,關鍵在於兩大交易主題 — 主要由財政憂慮驅動的「貨幣貶值」交易,以及主要由美元「武器化」和中美緊張關係等地緣政治憂慮驅動的...
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《商品》施羅德:黃金牛市未結束
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對於金牛市是否就此告終,施羅德投資資深投資組合(黃金與大宗商品)經理James Luke表示,極端的油價升幅,在短期內很可能對所有資產類別造成衝擊,黃金亦不例外。但宏觀環境截然不同。該行認為,要從資產配置的角度去審視黃金的中長期風險回報,關鍵在於兩大交易主題 — 主要由財政憂慮驅動的「貨幣貶值」交易,以及主要由美元「武器化」和中美緊張關係等地緣政治憂慮驅動的「去美元化」交易 — 會否因為當前的中東事件而告終。若答案是上述交易將會因而告終,那麼金價或已在本週期見頂。若答案是否定的,那麼目前這段時期或可被視為買入良機。

施羅德投資認為答案是否定, 地緣政治局勢由美國單極轉向多極的大國競爭,此趨勢在對全球化機構和供應鏈的信心減弱的情況下,除非美國/以色列迅速取得壓倒性勝利,很可能持續下去。同時,當前事件引發了滯脹和國防開支負擔加劇的可能。經濟衰退的概率正在上升,七國集團成員的財政狀況持續惡化,其債務和赤字不斷增加的趨勢將會延續。戰爭極有可能被視為下一個財政衝擊,而各國財政前景惡化的可能性亦相當高。即使危機持續,該行預期在短期的條件反射式拋售完結後,黃金將開始扭轉其與油市近期的負相關性。

黃金股方面,該行指,自戰事爆發以來,黃金股的價值已下跌約25%。投資者憂慮成本通脹和金價下跌,會嚴重蠶食金礦公司的利潤率。市場再次出現條件反射式的傾向,將這次伊朗衝擊視為2022年烏克蘭能源危機的翻版,該次危機最終導致黃金股表現跑輸金條。不過,金礦公司目前龐大的利潤緩衝,顯示經營槓桿已大幅降低。換言之,即使成本上漲速度遠超金價,利潤率仍有可能擴張。因此對於認同該行觀點、認為金牛市可能持續的投資者而言,黃金股板塊依然極具吸引力。
(ha/w)

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