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<Research> Citi Upbeat on Lithium Price Outlook; Raises TP on GANFENGLITHIUM (01772.HK) and TIANQI LITHIUM (09696.HK)
Recommend 15 Positive 23 Negative 16 |
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Citi released a research report noting that lithium and battery materials have emerged from difficulties since 2H25, mainly driven by strong demand. Given continued strengthening demand confidence and intermittent supply disruptions, the bank remains positive on lithium prices, expecting prices may test RMB250,000 per tonne within the year, possibly between August and September. As China lithium stocks recently adjusted on concerns that high prices may hurt demand, Citi raised its preference for lithium stocks, believing that when prices rise, lithium producers will Outperform other segments of the battery value chain. Citi updated its preference ranking across the value chain, with the latest order being: lithium > cathode > battery > electrolyte > separator > battery components > anode. The banks top picks include GANFENGLITHIUM (01772.HK), CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX (300750.SZ), HUNAN YUNENG (301358.SZ), EVE ENERGY (300014.SZ) and CALB (03931.HK). Regarding GANFENGLITHIUM (01772.HK), Citi believes that supported by robust battery demand and increasing contributions from low-cost upstream resources such as Goulamina and Mariana, the companys cost competitiveness will improve and it should benefit from rising average selling prices of lithium. Its equity-attributable lithium production is expected to continue growing over the next two to three years, laying the foundation for long-term competitiveness. In addition, its fast-growing battery business will provide additional upside support to net profit in the coming years. After updating its financial model, the bank raised its FY2026 and FY2027 net profit forecasts to RMB8.457 billion and RMB8.161 billion, respectively, and reiterated its Buy rating, lifting the H-share TP from HKD66.7 to HKD78.12. Citi also noted that TIANQI LITHIUM (09696.HK) is among the best-positioned companies to benefit from the upcycle in lithium prices, given its pure exposure to the lithium sector from upstream spodumene to downstream lithium carbonate. Rising lithium prices supported a notable earnings recovery in 1Q26 and signal solid financial performance for the full year. Compared with GANFENGLITHIUM (01772.HK), TIANQI LITHIUMs valuation is not expensive and remains attractive to investors in the near term. After updating its financial model, the bank raised its FY2026 and FY2027 net profit forecasts to RMB6.969 billion and RMB5.269 billion, respectively, reiterated its Buy rating, and increased the H-share TP from HKD61 to HKD68. (ad/u) Auto-translated by AI This article was automatically translated by AI, the original language version should be considered the authoritative version. AASTOCKS.com Limited does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accepts no liability for any damages or losses arising from the use of this translation. More Details
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