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<Research>Jefferies: CN Open-Source Models Lag US Leading Closed-Source Models by Only 3-6 Mths; TENCENT, BABA-W Have Competitive Edge in Consumer Traffic
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The gap between China and the US in AI benchmark scores is narrowing, but real-world gap on reasoning and long-chain task execution is wider, Jefferies said in its report. Vertical sectors such as finance, education, manufacturing and logistics have high monetization potential, and overseas companies have begun to achieve positive returns on investment. In China, a clear winner-takes-all landscape has yet to emerge. Value along the AI value chain will flow to companies with proprietary data, deep workflow integration and paradigm breakthroughs. The broker noted that during its Investor Day it communicated with two AI experts. Both experts believe the US still maintains a lead in frontier model capabilities, thanks to its first-mover advantage, original technological innovation, a larger pool of AI talent and more abundant computing power. Although China continues to narrow the gap in benchmark test scores at the frontier level, real-world user experience still shows a significant disparity, particularly in complex reasoning and long-chain task execution. China's advantages lie in engineering implementation capabilities, abundant application scenarios and data, an open-source ecosystem, as well as sufficient and low-cost electricity supply. Experts estimate that China's open-source models lag leading US closed-source models by only about 3-6 months. Regarding the competitive landscape, Jefferies cited experts as saying that large internet platforms such as ByteDance, TENCENT (00700.HK) and BABA-W (09988.HK) have advantages in consumer traffic gateways, while independent AI companies are better positioned in overseas markets and enterprise verticals. Another expert is more optimistic about the innovation capabilities of independent AI players, believing that large internet companies are constrained by internal competition and traditional internet operating models. Overall, neither expert currently sees a clear winner-takes-all situation. The ultimate leaders will be companies that can combine top-tier technical talent, strong engineering execution, proprietary data flywheels and deep scenario integration. Auto-translated by AI This article was automatically translated by AI, the original language version should be considered the authoritative version. AASTOCKS.com Limited does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accepts no liability for any damages or losses arising from the use of this translation. More Details
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