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BABA-W Opens 7.8% Higher; UBS Lifts TP to HKD179
Recommend
34
Positive
58
Negative
15
BABA-W (09988.HK) opened 7.76% higher this morning (14th) at HKD143.1, with 8.9426 million shares traded in premarket negotiated transactions, involving HKD1.28 billion.

UBS published a research report noting that BABA-W's 4FQ results met expectations, and the quarter likely marked an earnings trough. However, the earnings outlook still faces headwinds including macro weakness and intensifying e-commerce competition.

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Although market sentiment toward AI remains strong, BABA-W's investment theme is no longer centered on earnings growth, but rather on its role as a representative of China's AI supply chain, in UBS view.

UBS correspondingly lowered its EPS forecasts for FY2027-28 by 8% to reflect declining e-commerce profitability and increased AI investment, partly offset by improving cloud margins. The broker reduced the valuation multiple of Taobao and Tmall Group (TTG) from 9x to 8x, but raised the valuation of its AI assets.

As a result, it lifted the Hong Kong share TP from HKD166 to HKD179 and the US share Alibaba (BABA.US) TP from USD170 to USD184, reiterating a Buy rating.

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