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Macquarie: Oil Prices May Hit USD200/ bbl if Hormuz Strait Closure Persists Until Jun
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If the Iran war persists until June and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, oil prices could reach a historic high of USD200 per barrel, Macquarie said in its report.

There is currently a 60% likelihood that the war may end by the end of this month, while there is a 40% chance that the conflict will continue into the second quarter, which would lead to spot oil prices reaching historic highs, the report said.

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The long-term impact on commodities will depend on the timing of the strait's reopening and the actual extent of damage to energy infrastructure.
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