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<Research>UBS Keeps CN GDP Growth Base Case Forecast at 4.5% for This Yr, but Expects More Upside Risks
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In the government work report from the Two Sessions, China set its GDP growth target at 4.5-5%, which aligned with UBS expectations, said UBS Chief China Economist Song Yu.

UBS also anticipated that the People's Bank of China will cut interest rates by 10-20 bps, lower the RRR by 25-50 bps, and increase the use of structural monetary policy tools this year. UBS maintained its base case forecast for GDP growth at 4.5% for 2026, but this forecast faces more upside risks.

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UBS expected the government to introduce further moderate easing measures, with real estate activity continuing to subside, although the rate of decline is expected to slacken.
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