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<Research>M Stanley Foresees CN Real Estate Downside to Persist Into 2026, 1st-/ 2nd-Hand Property Prices to Drop by High Single Digits
Recommend 2 Positive 11 Negative 6 |
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Housing sales in China recorded a steep YoY decline similar to October last month, while construction and real estate investment also fell more than expected, according to a Morgan Stanley report. Although policy stance may remain passive and cautious, the sentiment in the residential market continues to deteriorate, making it likely that the downside in the physical market will extend into next year, though at a moderate pace. Meanwhile, first-hand home sales volume and second-hand home prices are predicted to drop by high single digits, while new starts, completions, and real estate investment will experience a mid-double-digit decline. Morgan Stanley favors CHINA RES LAND (01109.HK) and SEAZEN HOLDINGS (601155.SH), given that they will benefit from the consumption stimulus in the "15th Five-Year Plan" and strong policy tailwinds for REITs as solid commercial real estate operators. The broker is also bullish about C&D INTL GROUP (01908.HK) and CHINA OVERSEAS (00688.HK) as residential market consolidators, citing that their optimized land reserves will support profit margins and earnings returning to positive growth. AAStocks Financial News |
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