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JPM Private Bank Estimates Fed to Cut Rates by Only 25 Bps Next Yr
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The Federal Reserve's latest policy decision revealed enlarged division within the committee, as three dissenting votes marked the most since 2019, reflecting differing views on the pace of easing, said Weiheng Chen, Global Investment Strategist at JPMorgan Private Bank. The median point indicated only one rate cut next year and another in 2027, but member opinions were divided.

Compared to September, fewer members believed rates should be below 3% next year. Labor market data remains crucial for future rate decisions. Although there are signs of stabilization, unemployment risks may incline the Fed towards continued easing.

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JPMorgan Private Bank expects the Fed to cut rates by another 25 bps in 2026, below the current market expectation of about 50 bps.
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