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<Research>CMSI Cuts JD-SW TP to $153, Expects Sluggish 4Q25 Outlook under High Base
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JD-SW (09618.HK)(JD.US) achieved a 2% revenue beat in 3Q25, harnessing strong growth in daily necessities and ads services revenue, paired with contributions from JD Food Delivery, CMSI's research report indicated. However, the operating loss from new businesses was deeper than expected. JD Retail (JDR) was foreseen to face bigger snags in 4Q25 under a high base, with electronics revenue forecasted to decline by 5% YoY.

Given the deteriorating outlook for JDR's margins, the broker lowered its non-GAAP net profit forecasts for FY2025 and FY2026 by 5% and 13% respectively, and reduced its US stock target price from USD42 to USD39, and its H-share target price from HKD163 to HKD153, factoring in the downward revision in earnings forecasts. Despite the lack of short-term catalysts, CMSI maintained an Overweight rating on JD.

Related NewsM Stanley Rates JD.com as Underweight, Estimates 4Q Non-GAAP Operating Loss RMB807M

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