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<Research>UBS Expects CN Property Mkt Downtrend to Continue Until 2027, Residential Sales GFA/ Value to Drop 10% Next Yr
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Expectations for residential property prices have fundamentally changed, with property agents and investors increasingly discussing rents and rental yields, UBS released a research report saying. The rental yield in first-tier cities in mainland China was 1.8%, lower than the mortgage rate of 3.1%, and October rents still fell 3% YoY, the report noted. The stabilization of Hong Kong's property market this year, benefiting from rising rents and falling interest rates, provided a reference. Since an increase in rents in China is not expected in the short term, the downcycle in China's property market is anticipated to continue into 2026 and 2027, based on inventory model and mortgage calculator. UBS lowered its 2025/ 2026 total residential sales forecasts for mainland China by 3%/ 13% each, and predicted a 10% drop in China's property sales GFA and value for 2026, followed by another 5% decline in 2027. AASTOCKS Financial News Website: www.aastocks.com |
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