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<Research>M Stanley: LAOPU GOLD, POP MART Have Potential for Earnings Growth; HAIDILAO, MENGNIU DAIRY Likely to See Earnings Downside
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The recovery in demand within China's consumer sector for 2Q25 has yet to manifest, and the divergence in sales and profit margin trends at the company level is escalating, Morgan Stanley wrote in its research report.

The 2Q25 market earnings estimates for the companies under Morgan Stanley's coverage decline because of pressure from mature product category sales.

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In Morgan Stanley's projection, high-growth stocks will continue to maintain vigorous momentum, with LAOPU GOLD (06181.HK) and POP MART (09992.HK) having potential for earnings growth. In mature categories, as earnings increases are more likely to stem from improvements in profit margins, CTG DUTY-FREE (01880.HK), TINGYI (00322.HK), and NONGFU SPRING (09633.HK) are expected to have potential for growth.

Meanwhile, the liquor industry is likely to perform weakly with downside risks. HAIDILAO (06862.HK) and MENGNIU DAIRY (02319.HK) are anticipated to see earnings downside.

Morgan Stanley's industry top picks were POP MART and GIANT BIOGENE (02367.HK) for high growth, CHOW TAI FOOK (01929.HK) for turnaround themes, and YUM CHINA (09987.HK) and ANTA SPORTS (02020.HK) for resilience and return themes.

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