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HK 1Q 3.1% GDP Growth Confirmed; Govt Keeps Full-Yr Growth Forecast of 2-3%
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The Hong Kong Government released today (16th) the First Quarter Economic Report 2025, together with the revised figures on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2025. The Hong Kong economy expanded solidly in the first quarter of 2025, mainly supported by visible increases in exports of goods and services, as well as the resumption of moderate growth in overall investment expenditure. Yet, private consumption expenditure continued to register a modest decline. Real GDP expanded by 3.1% year-on-year in the first quarter, same as the estimated value, picking up from the 2.5% growth in the preceding quarter. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter basis, real GDP grew visibly by 1.9%. The global economy maintained steady growth in the first quarter. With broadly sustained external demand, as well as some front-loading of shipments in anticipation of tariff hikes by the United States in early April, Hong Kong’s total exports of goods saw visibly accelerated growth, up 8.4% year-on-year in real terms. Meanwhile, thanks to the further increase in visitor arrivals, growth in cross boundary traffic, and notable increase in cross-boundary financial and fund raising activities, total exports of services continued to expand visibly in the first quarter, by 6.6% year-on-year in real terms. As international trade tensions have eased somewhat of late, the headwinds and uncertainties in the external environment have lessened to some extent. This may relieve part of the downward pressure on the global economic outlook. Moreover, the sustained steady growth of the Mainland economy amid more proactive fiscal policies and the moderately accommodative monetary policies should bode well for the performance of merchandise exports in Asia including Hong Kong. Sustained international trade flows, coupled with improving inbound tourism, are also expected to benefit Hong Kong's exports of services. However, uncertainties in the trade policies of the United States persist, and its monetary policy trajectory going forward is still complicated. These may affect global financial conditions and investment sentiment. Apart from this, the change in consumption patterns of residents and visitors would still pose constraints on driving consumption in the domestic market, though sustained increase in employment earnings and the SAR Government’s various policies to promote mega events and tourism would help boost consumption sentiment. Taking into account the actual outturn in the first quarter and the latest developments of the global and local situation, the real GDP growth forecast for 2025 as a whole is maintained at 2%-3%, the same as that announced in the Budget. The Government will continue to closely monitor the situation. On the inflation outlook, overall inflation should remain modest in the near term as pressures from domestic costs and external prices should stay broadly in check. Considering that the inflation situation in the first quarter was broadly in line with earlier expectations, the forecasts for the underlying and headline consumer price inflation rates for 2025 are maintained at 1.5% and 1.8% respectively, the same as those announced in the Budget. AASTOCKS Financial News Website: www.aastocks.com |
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