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加息預期升溫 美國30年國債發行中標利率升穿5% 2007年以來首見
2月底起伊朗戰爭引發美國新一輪通脹飆升,未來加息預期升溫,美國政府自2007年以來首次以5%的孳息率出售30年期國債。美國財政部週三(13日)發行了250億美元的30年期新國債,拍賣中的中標孳息率達到5.046%。波士頓聯儲總裁Susan Collins隔晚表示,若通脹壓力未能緩解,聯儲局或許需要進一步加息。隔晚市場定價顯示,根據通脹數據,到2027年4月美...
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加息預期升溫 美國30年國債發行中標利率升穿5% 2007年以來首見
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2月底起伊朗戰爭引發美國新一輪通脹飆升,未來加息預期升溫,美國政府自2007年以來首次以5%的孳息率出售30年期國債。美國財政部週三(13日)發行了250億美元的30年期新國債,拍賣中的中標孳息率達到5.046%。波士頓聯儲總裁Susan Collins隔晚表示,若通脹壓力未能緩解,聯儲局或許需要進一步加息。
隔晚市場定價顯示,根據通脹數據,到2027年4月美國加息的概率為80%,高於週一(11日)的56%。
對未來通脹進一步上升的擔憂使得投標人要求更高的固定孳息率作為補償。石油衝擊已推動包括美國消費者價格指數(CPI)和生產者價格指數(PPI)在內的廣泛通脹指標上升,並抬升了通脹預期。
《彭博》引述德銀利率策略師Steven Zeng表示,預計在美國國債孳息率達到5%時,會開始看到投資者需求出現。通常這是30年期美債對養老基金和其他債券驅動型投資者變得更具吸引力的水平。
Zeng稱,該行的基本判斷是,聯儲局已經結束降息,但也不會加息,因為長期通脹預期仍然良好錨定。他補充,但如果高能源價格導致通脹預期失控,市場就不得不重新評估聯儲局的政策路徑,而在這種情況下,國債孳息率可能會大幅上升。
Collins表示,儘管美國經濟結構的變化使其更能抵禦能源衝擊,但最新一輪通脹上行壓力疊加在原本已持續強勁的物價壓力之上,這在一定程度上改變了她的前景判斷。她補充,在當前時刻維持通脹預期穩定至關重要。(da/u)
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