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India Central Bank Keeps Benchmark Rate Unchanged as Expected; Sees FY2026-27 Real GDP Growth at 6.9%
The Reserve Bank of India announced that the Monetary Policy Committee unanimously decided to keep the benchmark repo rate unchanged at 5.25%, in line with market expectations.The ...
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India Central Bank Keeps Benchmark Rate Unchanged as Expected; Sees FY2026-27 Real GDP Growth at 6.9%
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The Reserve Bank of India announced that the Monetary Policy Committee unanimously decided to keep the benchmark repo rate unchanged at 5.25%, in line with market expectations.

The central bank stated that the conflict in the Middle East has severely disrupted global supply chains, posing unprecedented challenges to the global economy, with rising prices and slowing growth. In this environment, monetary policy faces a dilemma, while equity market valuations have corrected. Financial markets have been volatile, and the US Dollar Index has been supported by safe-haven demand, exerting pressure on currencies of major economies. Further escalation, prolongation or expansion of the conflict represents the key downside risk to the global economic outlook.

The central bank noted that Indias economy remains resilient in FY2025-26, with real GDP for the year expected to grow by 7.6%. Private consumption and fixed investment are supporting growth, while net external demand remains weak. Looking ahead, elevated energy and other commodity prices, coupled with disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, will constrain production in FY2026-27. Intensifying volatility in global financial markets and spillover effects on domestic financial conditions are expected to weigh on the growth outlook.

The central bank forecasts real GDP growth of 6.9% for FY2026-27, with growth of 6.8%, 6.7%, 7% and 7.2% for the first to fourth fiscal quarters starting in April this year. It projects the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to rise 4.6% in FY2026-27, with core inflation at 4.4%, or lower excluding precious metals, indicating that underlying inflationary pressures remain contained.

The next monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank of India will be held from June 3 to 5.

In a separate monetary policy report, the central bank stated that if the Indian rupee depreciates by 5% relative to the baseline scenario, inflation could rise by about 40 bps, while economic growth could increase by 25 bps. (da/u)~

This article was automatically translated by AI, the Chinese version should be considered the authoritative version. AASTOCKS.com Limited does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accepts no liability for any damages or losses arising from the use of this translation.

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