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BOJ: Rates to Be Adjusted Based on Improvements in Econ and Prices
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept its interest rate unchanged in March. According to the meeting minutes, a member of the Policy Board dissented, advocating an immediate rate hike to 1%...
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BOJ: Rates to Be Adjusted Based on Improvements in Econ and Prices
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The Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept its interest rate unchanged in March. According to the meeting minutes, a member of the Policy Board dissented, advocating an immediate rate hike to 1%. The board reiterated that it will gradually raise rates when conditions permit and will make decisions at each meeting based on wages, prices and evolving geopolitical developments.

In March, the BOJ voted 8-1 to maintain the interest rate at 0.75%. The minutes showed that the board discussed inflation risks stemming from the Iran war. Most members agreed that Japan's economy is recovering moderately, but the Iran conflict has led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices and heightened financial market volatility, creating significant uncertainty for inflation and economic growth outlooks.

Members unanimously agreed that escalating tensions in the Middle East have generated excessive uncertainty, making it insufficient to justify further rate hikes. One member argued that the price stability target has effectively been achieved and that upside inflation risks driven by second-round effects from rising energy costs justify an immediate hike to 1%. The majority, however, believed more time is needed to assess the impact of the conflict before adjusting policy.

Members generally agreed that prior to the escalation of tensions involving Iran, Japan's economy had been recovering moderately, with a virtuous cycle between wages and consumption largely intact. They noted that Japan's economic backdrop in 2026 is significantly different from that in 2022. Corporate price- and wage-setting behavior has become more proactive, inflation expectations have risen to around 2%, and the pass-through effect of yen depreciation to consumer prices has strengthened. These factors increase the likelihood of second-round inflation effects and leave the BOJ with less room for complacency than four years ago.

The board reiterated its intention to gradually raise rates when conditions permit, with the pace of hikes to be decided at each meeting based on wages, prices and evolving geopolitical developments. (hc/w)~


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