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<Research>M Stanley: CN Econ Growth Target for 2026 at 4.5-5%, Slightly Below Forecasts; 'Reflation' Likely to Progress Slowly
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The latest work report from China's State Council indicates that the country's economic growth target for 2026 has been lowered to 4.5-5%, mildly below the market consensus of 4.6%, according to Morgan Stanley's research report. Meanwhile, China's fiscal deficit is preliminarily estimated to be reduced by 50 bps, suggesting a policy stance leaning towards "providing a buffer rather than boosting". The policy mix remains focused on the supply side, with technological upgrades continuing to take precedence, infrastructure serving as support, and consumer and social security support being relatively moderate and targeted. As China's overall policy stance remains cautious and aligns with a "slow-burning reflation" path, nominal GDP in 2026 is estimated to reach around 4%, below market consensus. Overall, the "buffer rather than boost" policy approach paves the way for the sustainability of long-term growth, but the short-term policy strength is limited, and "reflation" will likely progress slowly. In particular, the real estate market will need two more years of continuous adjustments. AAStocks Financial News |
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