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<Research>Citi Cuts Sales Forecast for LI AUTO-W (02015.HK) for 2026-27, TP to $71.1
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Due to LI AUTO-W (02015.HK)'s order intake miss in January, aging issues with the L series models, intensified industry competition, and deepened retail discounts, Citi revised down its sales forecast for Li Auto by 9-10% for 2026 and 2027 to 455,000 and 503,000 units, respectively. The GPM forecast was cut by 0.4-0.5 ppts to 17.7% and 17.5%, and the NP forecast was trimmed by 16-18% to RMB2.85 billion and RMB3.5 billion, respectively.

Accordingly, Citi lowered its target price for its H shares from HKD77.7 to HKD71.1. The target price for Li Auto (LI.US) in the US market was chopped from USD20.2 to USD18.5, reflecting recent pressure on margins and intense market competition. The rating remained Neutral.

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