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<Research>Nomura Expects JD-SW's Retail Rev. Growth to Slow, Instant Retail Loss to Narrow in 4Q25
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Nomura has released a report predicting JD-SW (09618.HK)'s 4Q25 revenue to have grown by 2% YoY to RMB353 billion and its non-GAAP net profit to have plunged by 91% YoY to RMB917 million.

Regarding the retail business, Nomura expects JD-SW's revenue to have declined by 2.6% YoY, with operating profit potentially slipping by 19% to RMB8.1 billion and the operating profit margin decreasing by 0.6 ppts YoY, mainly due to weak revenue and increased subsidies to offset reduced government trade-in funding.

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In terms of new business, JD-SW, despite its commitment to the instant retail sector, has shifted its investment strategy from "growth-oriented" to more conservative. Nomura anticipates losses in its instant retail business to have narrowed by over RMB2 billion QoQ to RMB10 billion.

Nomura reiterated a Buy rating on JD.com (JD.US), with a target price of USD37.
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