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<Research>JPM Holds Constructive Trading View on BABA-W for Next 6-12 Mths, Recommends Overweight
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Negative
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JPMorgan's research report expressed a constructive trading view for BABA-W (09988.HK) over the next 6-12 months, recommending an Overweight rating on Alibaba shares. The report anticipated the group's share price will overcome short-term profit pressures and will be re-rated once the monetization inflection point of “cloud business + generative AI” becomes more evident.

JPMorgan also expected Alibaba Cloud's revenue growth to keep accelerating in the coming quarters, as generative AI workloads expand from pilot phases to broader deployments, demonstrating Alibaba's ability to capture and realize AI-driven demand in China. The report maintained an Overweight rating but trimmed its target price for Alibaba (BABA.US) US shares from US$230 to US$215 and its target price for Hong Kong shares from HK$225 to HK$210.

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JPMorgan further axed its EPS forecasts for Alibaba by 15% and 7% for 2027 and 2028, respectively, to reflect increased investment in food delivery, instant retail, and user acquisition for generative AI-native applications, as well as deteriorated monetization capabilities in the domestic e-commerce amid sluggish consumer spending. The broker believed that earnings could decline further in the coming quarters as these negative factors continue to brood. Therefore, they anticipated more divergent trading styles and potentially greater volatility.
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