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<Research>Citi Expects CN to Achieve 5% Economic Growth Target but Maintain 'K-Shaped' Recovery
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Mainland China is likely to achieve its 5% economic growth target by 2025, especially given last month's PMI surprises, Citi's research report indicated. The effects of previously implemented policies may be gradually manifesting, however, the economy is expected to maintain a K-shaped structure, with resilient exports but sluggish domestic demand.

Last month's PMI in Mainland China beat, further solidifying the 5% growth forecast for the past year, said Citi. The broker anticipated that the GDP for 4Q25 will grow by 4.6% YoY, with monthly indicators improving towards the end of the quarter. Following the PMI's beat, the annual growth rate of industrial production may reach 5.6%.

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