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<Research>JPM: Cost Reduction Measures for CN Real Estate May Only Boost ST Deal Vol.; Top Picks CHINA RES LAND, CHINA RES MIXC
Recommend 15 Positive 20 Negative 5 |
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China is pondering over an introduction of new support measures for the real estate, including providing mortgage subsidies, raising personal income tax rebate limits for mortgage buyers, and reducing housing transaction costs, JPMorgan released a report, citing market speculation in Bloomberg's report. JPMorgan believed that this cost-reduction policy direction is feasible, and with further deterioration in real estate data, now is the time for the government to take more actions. However, even if the above rumors are true, such measures cannot solve the core issue, which is the pessimistic expectation of housing prices. Therefore, transaction volume may only be boosted in the short term over the next few months. A true reversal requires a commitment to put a stop in home price slump, so as to rebuild buyer confidence, in JP Morgan's view. The next possible policy window is the Politburo meeting or the Central Economic Working Conference from late November to December. Based on the broker's tracking of market rumors, the historical accuracy rate is approximately 40-45%. JPMorgan's top picks for Chinese property developers remained CHINA RES LAND (01109.HK) and CHINA RES MIXC (01209.HK). However, in a policy-driven rebound, although financially distressed stocks such as SUNAC (01918.HK) often experience the strongest short-term upswing, the broker considered that LONGFOR GROUP (00960.HK) and CHINA JINMAO (00817.HK) offer a better risk reward. AASTOCKS Financial News Website: www.aastocks.com |
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