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<Research>G Sachs Raises 12-Mth Target of MSCI China Index to 70 pts, CSI 300 to 4,100 pts
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Goldman Sachs noted in a report that the MSCI China Index has recovered 31% from its low in late January and is up 19% over the past month, outperforming most developed and emerging markets. Key factors driving the uptrend include a resilient economy, macro policy support for the property and capital markets, as well as subdued valuations, investor positions, and confidence in the early part of the comparative period. The Index's P/E ratio rose from 7.9x to 10.5x during the timeframe.

According to the report, based on historical data, when the market lifted more than 20% and entered a technical bull market, there would be a 60% chance of higher returns, with the 6-month maximum return averaging 35%. Whether the upward momentum in the mainland stock market can be sustained depends on the implementation of policies and US-China relations. The broker raised its 12-month target for the MSCI China Index from 60 to 70 points, and that for CSI 300 from 3,900 to 4,100 points.

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Goldman maintained its Overweight rating on mainland A-shares, Marketweight rating on offshore Chinese equities, and Overweight rating on TMT (technology, media and telecom). The broker also upgraded real estate developers and banks to Marketweight, while downgrading capital goods and automobiles to Undeweight.

Furthermore, Goldman selected a portfolio of 40 stocks that will benefit from China's recovery, taking into account factors such as shareholders' returns, the property market cycle and earnings growth potential. Hong Kong-listed stocks with over 4% weighting include TENCENT (00700.HK), BABA-SW (09988.HK), CCB (00939.HK), AIA (01299.HK), MEITUAN-W (03690.HK), XIAOMI-W (01810.HK), PING AN (02318.HK), and TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK).



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