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<Foresight>Brokers Expect BABA-SW (09988.HK) 4FQ24 Non-GAAP NP to Fall 14%+; Focus on E-commerce GMV Growth & Shareholder Return Guidance (Update)
Recommend 27 Positive 42 Negative 18 |
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BABA-SW (09988.HK) will announce its 4QFY24 results ending March this year tomorrow (14 May). The market expected the results to be impacted by increased investment in e-commerce experiences, and losses in international e-commerce and Cainiao. Investors will be concerned about the effectiveness of BABA's low-pricing strategy to drive traffic and gross merchandise volume (GMV) growth, changes in the gap between GMV and China's retail customer management revenue (CMR) gap (i.e., realisation rate), how it will increase shareholders' returns in a variety of ways, and the company's guidance on share buybacks and dividend payouts. ---------------------------------------------------------- According to the forecasts by the 8 brokers summarised by our reporters, BABA's 4QFY24 non-GAAP net profit is predicted to range from RMB22.0 billion to RMB26.958 billion, representing a 1.5% to 19.6% YoY decline from RMB27.375 billion in 4QFY23. The median of RMB23.34 billion represented a YoY decline of 14.7%. Broker│4QFY24 Non-GAAP Net Profit Forecast (RMB)│YoY Change Haitong International│RMB26.958 billion│-1.5% CICC│RMB26.069 billion│-4.8% UBS│RMB23.91 billion│-12.7% BOCOMI│RMB23.548 billion│-14% Daiwa│RMB23.129 billion│-15.5% Citi│RMB22.785 billion│-16.8% Goldman Sachs│RMB22.116 billion│-19.2% JPMorgan│RMB22.0 billion│-19.6% ---------------------------------------------------------- According to the forecasts by the 15 brokers summarised by our reporters, BABA's 4QFY24 adjusted EBITA is expected to be in the range of RMB22.956 billion to RMB24.509 billion, falling 3% to 9.2% YoY when compared to RMB25.28 billion in 4QFY23. The median of RMB23.836 billion represented a 5.7% YoY drop. Broker│4QFY24 Adjusted EBITA Forecast (RMB)│YoY Change BOCOMI│RMB24.509 billion│-3% CICC│RMB24.309 billion│-3.8% Shenwan Hongyuan│RMB24.3 billion│-3.9% CITIC Securities│RMB24.3 billion│-3.9% Haitong International│RMB24.281 billion│-4% Huatai Securities│RMB24.136 billion│-4.5% CMBI│RMB24.0 billion│-5.1% Daiwa│RMB23.836 billion│-5.7% UBS│RMB23.658 billion│-6.4% Jefferies│RMB23.7 billion│-6.3% CCBI│RMB23.682 billion│-6.3% Morgan Stanley│RMB23.746 billion│-6.1% Nomura│RMB23.211 billion│-8.2% Goldman Sachs│RMB23.197 billion│-8.2% BOCI│RMB22.956 billion│-9.2% AAStocks Financial News |
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