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<Research>Citi: NIO-SW Inventory at Healthy Lv.; Near-term Outperformance vs LI AUTO-W
Citi research report estimated the inventory conditions of multiple Chinese automakers as of end-April based on the latest data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). The...
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<Research>Citi: NIO-SW Inventory at Healthy Lv.; Near-term Outperformance vs LI AUTO-W
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Citi research report estimated the inventory conditions of multiple Chinese automakers as of end-April based on the latest data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). The broker noted that NIO-SW (09866.HK)  -1.740 (-3.531%)    Short selling $80.91M; Ratio 27.805%   maintained inventory at a healthy and optimal level, with an estimated accumulation of about 40,000 new vehicles by end-April to meet May delivery demand, making it a standout in the industry and supporting its May deliveries. Standing in contrast, LI AUTO-W (02015.HK)  -10.700 (-14.153%)    Short selling $1.78B; Ratio 49.390%   kept inventory at a relatively high level, and any inventory reduction measures could erode its 2Q margins and may even partly affect 3Q margins.

Among other automakers, NIO-SW and LEAPMOTOR (09863.HK)  -3.540 (-7.828%)    Short selling $356.05M; Ratio 30.203%   were both at a "sweet spot" in terms of inventory, with inventory months subtracting by 0.3 months MoM to 1.4 months. Inventory levels of BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)  -2.650 (-2.748%)    Short selling $1.15B; Ratio 41.486%   and GEELY AUTO (00175.HK)  -1.040 (-4.810%)    Short selling $302.97M; Ratio 18.737%   were in line with market expectations. BYD COMPANY recorded 2.7 months of inventory at end-April, slightly up from 2.6 months in March, while GEELY AUTO stood at 2.4 months, up from 2.1 months in March. XPENG-W (09868.HK)  -0.650 (-1.060%)    Short selling $223.31M; Ratio 30.623%   maintained stable inventory, with only a slight MoM rise.

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Citi expected NIO-SW to outperform LI AUTO-W in the near term. NIO-SW had 1.2 months of inventory at end-April, a surge from 0.2 months in March, mainly to prepare for May deliveries. LI AUTO-W also logged 1.2 months of inventory at end-April, up from 0.9 months in March. Although CHERY AUTO (09973.HK)  -1.140 (-3.945%)    Short selling $10.16M; Ratio 7.760%   saw a MoM shrinkage in inventory, its inventory months remained at a relatively high level of 4.3 months. Citi believed that if China's passenger vehicle retail sales drop MoM in May, elevated inventory levels may further pressure margins during the mid-year inventory clearance in June.
(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-05-18 16:25.)

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