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S&P Global Assesses Impact of Oil & Gas Supply Risks on Non-Financial APAC Firms, Finds 15% of Firms to Face Credit Deterioration Under Worst-Case Scenario
Rating agency S&P Global Ratings conducted a scenario analysis on about half of the non-financial corporates it covers in the Asia-Pacific region, spanning around 20 industries...
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S&P Global Assesses Impact of Oil & Gas Supply Risks on Non-Financial APAC Firms, Finds 15% of Firms to Face Credit Deterioration Under Worst-Case Scenario
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Rating agency S&P Global Ratings conducted a scenario analysis on about half of the non-financial corporates it covers in the Asia-Pacific region, spanning around 20 industries.

The assessment tested potential supply chain disruptions, cost exposure to oil, natural gas and related derivatives, as well as the impact of margin and liquidity pressures.

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Under a base case scenario assuming a 'swift resolution of war,' with Brent crude oil price of US$85 per barrel for the remainder of 2026 and US$70 per barrel in 2027, around 9% of companies would face credit quality deterioration.

Under a downside scenario featuring prolonged conflict and energy shocks, with Brent crude oil price of US$130 per barrel for the remainder of 2026 and US$98 per barrel in 2027, the proportion would rise to 15%. Both scenarios assume financing markets remain operational and S&P Global Ratings took no further negative sovereign rating actions.

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