JPMorgan released a 4Q25 results forecast report on Chinese banks. The report said that, according to the data released by the National Administration of Financial Regulation (NAFR), the 4Q25 results of Chinese commercial banks were weak, especially among joint-stock banks.

It is expected that the average income growth of banks will improve, benefiting from the growth in net interest income and fee income, with investment income being a key factor.

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The profit growth of state-owned banks is expected to remain stable, with ABC (01288.HK)  +0.030 (+0.562%)    Short selling $133.24M; Ratio 19.286%   and BANK OF CHINA (03988.HK)  +0.030 (+0.642%)    Short selling $243.83M; Ratio 16.612%   potentially recording higher profits. Performance among joint-stock banks is expected to diverge, with quarterly profits of PING AN BANK (000001.SZ)  -0.110 (-1.011%)   , MINSHENG BANK (01988.HK)  -0.030 (-0.775%)    Short selling $9.68M; Ratio 2.974%   and CEB BANK (06818.HK)  0.000 (0.000%)    Short selling $14.77M; Ratio 29.088%   possibly contracting YoY.

The broker expected ABC and BANK OF CHINA to deliver stronger profit growth among state-owned banks, with ABC benefiting from strong non-interest income growth and provision write-backs; CCB (00939.HK)  -0.010 (-0.124%)    Short selling $603.15M; Ratio 21.141%   's quarterly net interest margin may expand QoQ on a low base; ICBC (01398.HK)  +0.020 (+0.304%)    Short selling $433.95M; Ratio 21.649%   and MINSHENG BANK had potential for income growth during the quarter based on a low base of investment income in the same period last year.

On the other hand, PING AN BANK may face significant contraction in quarterly investment income due to a high base, putting pressure on quarterly income and profit trends. PSBC (01658.HK)  0.000 (0.000%)    Short selling $61.81M; Ratio 25.458%   also faced a relatively high base for investment income.

In terms of profit, data from the NAFR shows that joint-stock banks' quarterly profits contracted by 6% YoY, as PU DEV BANK (600000.SH)  -0.040 (-0.388%)   , CM BANK (03968.HK)  -0.040 (-0.082%)    Short selling $80.49M; Ratio 9.576%   , CITIC BANK (00998.HK)  -0.030 (-0.405%)    Short selling $22.77M; Ratio 5.716%   , INDUSTRIAL BANK (601166.SH)  -0.040 (-0.212%)   and HUAXIA BANK (600015.SH)  +0.050 (+0.701%)   forecasted stable profit growth, implying downside risks for the profits of other joint-stock banks such as MINSHENG BANK, CEB BANK and PING AN BANK.

Stock | Rating | TP (HKD)

BANK OF CHINA (03988.HK)  +0.030 (+0.642%)    Short selling $243.83M; Ratio 16.612%   | Overweight | 5.5
CCB (00939.HK)  -0.010 (-0.124%)    Short selling $603.15M; Ratio 21.141%   | Overweight | 9.5
ICBC (01398.HK)  +0.020 (+0.304%)    Short selling $433.95M; Ratio 21.649%   | Overweight | 7.35
BANKCOMM (03328.HK)  +0.020 (+0.290%)    Short selling $59.72M; Ratio 31.316%   | Overweight | 7.85
ABC (01288.HK)  +0.030 (+0.562%)    Short selling $133.24M; Ratio 19.286%   | Overweight | 6.1
PSBC (01658.HK)  0.000 (0.000%)    Short selling $61.81M; Ratio 25.458%   | Neutral | 5.5
CITIC BANK (00998.HK)  -0.030 (-0.405%)    Short selling $22.77M; Ratio 5.716%   | Overweight | 9.05
CM BANK (03968.HK)  -0.040 (-0.082%)    Short selling $80.49M; Ratio 9.576%   | Overweight | 61
MINSHENG BANK (01988.HK)  -0.030 (-0.775%)    Short selling $9.68M; Ratio 2.974%   | Overweight | 4.4
CEB BANK (06818.HK)  0.000 (0.000%)    Short selling $14.77M; Ratio 29.088%   | Neutral | 3.1
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