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<Research>M Stanley Expects Slight Margin Compression in Casinos in 4Q25, Prefers GALAXY ENT/ SANDS CHINA LTD
The industry segmentation data from the Macau Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) has led to a further downward revision of its 4Q25 forecast for Macau's gaming in...
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<Research>M Stanley Expects Slight Margin Compression in Casinos in 4Q25, Prefers GALAXY ENT/ SANDS CHINA LTD
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The industry segmentation data from the Macau Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) has led to a further downward revision of its 4Q25 forecast for Macau's gaming industry, according to Morgan Stanley's research report.

Due to an unfavorable business mix shift (high VIP) and increased operating expenses, the 4Q25 profit margin is expected to slightly decrease, Morgan Stanley noted. It is anticipated that the industry average adjusted property EBITDA for 4Q25 will grow by 4% QoQ and 13% YoY, in line with market consensus.

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For individual stocks, the broker was bullish on GALAXY ENT (00027.HK)  +0.440 (+1.083%)    Short selling $67.81M; Ratio 18.890%   and SANDS CHINA LTD (01928.HK)  +0.250 (+1.359%)    Short selling $12.81M; Ratio 3.917%   , with both rated at Overweight. In December 2025, Morgan Stanley downgraded MGM CHINA (02282.HK)  +0.290 (+2.314%)    Short selling $8.11M; Ratio 16.373%  
to Equalweight due to higher royalty fees, and rated SJM HOLDINGS (00880.HK)  0.000 (0.000%)    Short selling $8.16M; Ratio 27.491%   at Underweight.

MGM CHINA significantly underperformed the market in December, but given its improved market share in 4Q25, some recovery might be observed, the broker added.
(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-01-21 16:25.)

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