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<Research>G Sachs Sees CN 2026 Econ Growth at 4.8% as Challenge Lies in Finding New Growth Engines
China's economy has undergone significant changes in recent years, Goldman Sachs released a research report saying. By the end of 2025, China's share in the US export marke...
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<Research>G Sachs Sees CN 2026 Econ Growth at 4.8% as Challenge Lies in Finding New Growth Engines
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China's economy has undergone significant changes in recent years, Goldman Sachs released a research report saying.

By the end of 2025, China's share in the US export market and the volume of new home construction starts domestically have fallen back to levels seen in the early 2000s, erasing growth achieved since joining the WTO in 2001 and the housing reform in 1998. The main challenge for China's economy is finding new growth drivers.

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Due to local government financing constraints and 'anti-involution' actions targeting overcapacity in certain industries, investment growth slowed in 2H25.

As policymakers commit to 'stabilizing investment' in 2026, the broker expected the growth rate of gross fixed capital formation to rebound from 1.5% in 2025 to 3.5% in 2026. Overall, Goldman Sachs forecasted China's real GDP to grow by 4.8% in 2026, higher than the market consensus of 4.5%.

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