Guotai Junan International released its economic and market outlook report for 2H25. As to Hong Kong stock outlook, in 1H25, the Hong Kong bourse displayed an "N" shaped trend due to the breakthroughs in China's AI industry and the impact of Trump's tariffs.

After the U.S.-China economic and trade talks on May 12 and the U.S. Trade Court's ruling on May 29 invalidating several of Trump's tariff orders, the worst-case scenario regarding tariffs has gradually become clearer, although the final tariff levels remain unknown. The HSI bounced back after repeatedly testing the 20,000-point threshold, showing apparent bottoming characteristics.

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Looking ahead, in the short term, Trump's tariff policies may still affect Hong Kong stock expectations, including potential liquidity fluctuations in Hong Kong stocks wrought by U.S. debt ceiling breaches and subsequent bond issuance.

However, the overall impact is marginally waning, not altering the medium to long-term uptrend of Hong Kong bourse. In the short term, high-quality dividend sectors represented by central state-owned enterprises (banks, telecoms and utilities) remain the ballast of investment portfolios.

In the medium to long term, technological innovation leading new productivity development is the new momentum for China's economic growth and the rise of Hong Kong stocks.

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