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<Research>BOCOMI Sees Signs of Stabilization in CN Property Mkt, Expects HK Home Prices to Grow 3% in 2H25
China's real estate sector is showing signs of stopping decline and moving towards stabilization, BOCOMI has released a report indicating.In 1-4M25, China's sales of newly ...
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<Research>BOCOMI Sees Signs of Stabilization in CN Property Mkt, Expects HK Home Prices to Grow 3% in 2H25
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China's real estate sector is showing signs of stopping decline and moving towards stabilization, BOCOMI has released a report indicating.

In 1-4M25, China's sales of newly built commercial housing reached RMB2.7035 trillion, with the YoY decline narrowing to 3.2%. Although there were still pockets of supply-demand imbalance, the residential market is expected to stabilize in 2025, with full-year new home sales projected at RMB8-8.5 trillion.

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The report also mentioned that Hong Kong's real estate market is facing macro uncertainties in 2025, but key positive factors are emerging. Population growth and a sharp drop in HIBOR are anticipated to stabilize the residential market. The broker estimated that home prices would rise by 3%/ 5%/ 5% in 2H25/ 2026/ 2027.

BOCOMI's preferred order for the Hong Kong real estate sector was retail REITs > low-leverage residential developers > retail property owners > REITs and developers with a high proportion of office business. LINK REIT (00823.HK)  +0.450 (+1.090%)    Short selling $60.12M; Ratio 8.357%   was the broker's top pick.
(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2025-06-06 16:25.)

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