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<Research>G Sachs: CN Official Mfg PMI/ Caixin CN Mfg PMI Both Below 50 in May, Signaling Negative Impact from US Tariffs
Released this morning, the Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May stood at 48.3, significantly below the market expectation of 50.7 and down 2.1 pp...
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<Research>G Sachs: CN Official Mfg PMI/ Caixin CN Mfg PMI Both Below 50 in May, Signaling Negative Impact from US Tariffs
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Released this morning, the Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May stood at 48.3, significantly below the market expectation of 50.7 and down 2.1 ppts from April, marking the first drop below the critical point since October 2024.

According to Goldman Sachs' research report, despite the reduction of tariffs following the China-US trade talks in Geneva, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI for May significantly declined to 48.3 from 50.4 in April (Goldman Sachs forecasted 50.7), contrary to market expectations of an increase. Among the major sub-indices, the output sub-index saw the largest decline, followed by the new orders sub-index.

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In May, the Manufacturing PMI released by China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) rose, while the Caixin Manufacturing PMI fell. The divergence between the two may be partly due to differences in survey timing. The Caixin PMI survey is usually conducted earlier than the NBS PMI survey, and the impact of tariff reductions after May 12 may not have been reflected in the Caixin PMI respondents' survey. Nonetheless, both manufacturing PMIs were below 50 in May, indicating the negative impact of US tariffs on manufacturing.

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