BofA Securities released a report on J&T EXPRESS-W (01519.HK)  +0.270 (+4.206%)    Short selling $43.02M; Ratio 17.244%   , which listed that the company manifested a market share of 30% in Indonesia; its reduction in Shopee's business volume in the nation is unlikely to affect its FY2025 results guidance; the company is expanding its network in East Java; and its cost structure may be lower than that of e-commerce platforms' self-operated logistics.

With the ASP sinking, J&T Express has the capability to reduce unit costs, and its level of automation is higher than in other Southeast Asian countries. Given J&T Express's attractive valuation and the adequately flagged downside risk to earnings (mainly from the Chinese market), BofA Securities reaffirmed its Buy rating on J&T EXPRESS-W.

BofA Securities raised its adjusted net profit forecast for J&T Express for FY2025-26 by 0-4%, mainly in light of higher business volume growth in the Southeast Asian market following a robust 1Q; and the potential for slightly positive EBITDA in new markets as TikTok Shop launched in Brazil in May and in Mexico in February.

Given the intense competition in the Chinese market, BofA Securities expected J&T Express's net profit from its Chinese business to drop from the expected RMB0.03-0.04 per parcel in FY2024 to zero in FY2025. As the Southeast Asian market commands higher earnings multiple compared to the Chinese market, the target price on J&T EXPRESS-W was raised by 2%, from HKD7.5 to HKD7.7.
(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2025-05-22 16:25.)