According to a JPMorgan report, the one-month Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) dropped by about 200 bps over the past two weeks to around 1.92%, significantly below the broker's benchmark forecast of an average of 3.75% for the entire year of 2025.

If the one-month HIBOR remains at around 2% for the rest of the year, JPMorgan estimated that Hong Kong banks' earnings could fall by an average of 21% this year. Specifically, HANG SENG BANK (00011.HK)  -0.100 (-0.090%)    Short selling $69.30M; Ratio 18.331%   / BOC HONG KONG (02388.HK)  -0.060 (-0.184%)    Short selling $116.73M; Ratio 21.807%   / DAHSING BANKING (02356.HK)  +0.040 (+0.465%)    Short selling $985.32K; Ratio 13.736%   / BANK OF E ASIA (00023.HK)  +0.040 (+0.355%)    Short selling $4.08M; Ratio 37.580%   could see their earnings decline by 14%/ 16%/ 21%/ 32%, while Standard Chartered/ HSBC may also log a decline of 1%/ 2% in their earnings this year. Among Hong Kong banks, the broker preferred HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK)  +0.600 (+0.669%)    Short selling $227.02M; Ratio 14.787%   , but its top pick was BOC HONG KONG.

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In addition, according to JPMorgan's real estate analyst team, for every 1 ppt drop in HIBOR, the earnings of Hong Kong developers under its coverage could receive a roughly 5% boost. Developers with higher leverage ratios, such as HENDERSON LAND (00012.HK)  +0.150 (+0.617%)    Short selling $34.92M; Ratio 27.407%   and NEW WORLD DEV (00017.HK)  0.000 (0.000%)    Short selling $3.46M; Ratio 8.551%   , are expected to benefit more than their peers do.
(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2025-05-13 16:25.)