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<Research>Citi Predicts PBOC to Cut Rates/ RRR by 20/ 50 bps in 2H25 Along With Fiscal Funds RMB1-1.5T in Mid-Year
The Governor of the People's Bank of China (PBOC), together with other financial watchdogs, announced 10 support measures at a joint press conference held by the State Council ...
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<Research>Citi Predicts PBOC to Cut Rates/ RRR by 20/ 50 bps in 2H25 Along With Fiscal Funds RMB1-1.5T in Mid-Year
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The Governor of the People's Bank of China (PBOC), together with other financial watchdogs, announced 10 support measures at a joint press conference held by the State Council Information Office, according to Citi's research report.

Citi categorized these 10 measures into four main groups, with highlights including a 10 bp policy rate cut, a 50 bp reduction in the required reserve ratio (RRR), and an RMB1.1 trillion expansion of the quota for relending tools.

Related NewsCiti: Recently Announced Incremental Policies Not as Historic as Last Sep, But Still Positive to CN Banks/ Brokers
Meanwhile, China's National Financial Regulatory Administration issued forward-looking guidance that provides eight support measures targeting the real estate sector, small- and medium-sized enterprises, and export companies. It is also worth noting that the PBOC kept its USD/ CNY fixing basically unchanged at 7.2005 even though the USD weakened.

Looking ahead, Citi forecasted another 20 bp rate cut and a 50 bp RRR cut in 2H25. Two missing parts so far are real estate and fiscal policies. For the former, the broker estimated that credit support and further policy easing in Tier-1 cities could serve as a tailwind. For the latter, the near-term focus may be on accelerating implementation. In the medium term, it appears feasible to add RMB1-1.5 trillion in fiscal or quasi-fiscal funds.

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