UBS released a research report shifting to a more cautious stance on Macau's gaming industry, and believing that the US tariff war will indirectly hurt demand as Macau's GGR was highly correlated with China's export data.

The broker now expected Macau's 2025 GGR to fall by 2% YoY, and its EBITDA to fall by 8% YoY. In a demand environment that may weaken, UBS preferred companies with strong balance sheets, higher dividend outlook and sustainable execution, with GALAXY ENT (00027.HK)  +0.600 (+2.128%)    Short selling $46.77M; Ratio 14.872%   being its top pick.

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UBS kept rating at Buy on GALAXY ENT, and downgraded MGM CHINA (02282.HK)  +0.260 (+2.590%)    Short selling $5.91M; Ratio 8.079%   / SANDS CHINA LTD (01928.HK)  +0.220 (+1.574%)    Short selling $79.10M; Ratio 32.431%   to Neutral. The broker also downgraded WYNN MACAU (01128.HK)  +0.100 (+1.927%)    Short selling $10.08M; Ratio 37.091%   , Melco Resorts & Entertainment (MLCO.US)      and SJM HOLDINGS (00880.HK)  +0.020 (+0.926%)    Short selling $4.33M; Ratio 27.195%   to Sell due to their high leverage.

UBS' ratings and target prices for casinos are listed below:

Stock | Rating | TP (HKD)

Related NewsMacquarie Lifts SJM HOLDINGS (00880.HK) TP to $2, Slightly Raises Adj. EBITDA Forecasts
GALAXY ENT (00027.HK)  +0.600 (+2.128%)    Short selling $46.77M; Ratio 14.872%   | Buy | 41.7 → 34.2
MGM CHINA (02282.HK)  +0.260 (+2.590%)    Short selling $5.91M; Ratio 8.079%   | Buy → Neutral | 12 → 10
SANDS CHINA LTD (01928.HK)  +0.220 (+1.574%)    Short selling $79.10M; Ratio 32.431%   | Buy → Neutral | 24.8 → 14.5
WYNN MACAU (01128.HK)  +0.100 (+1.927%)    Short selling $10.08M; Ratio 37.091%   | Neutral → Sell | 6.1 → 3.8
Melco Resorts & Entertainment (MLCO.US)      | Buy → Sell | US$8.5 → US$4.6
MELCO INT'L DEV (00200.HK)  -0.010 (-0.309%)    Short selling $943.53K; Ratio 9.889%   | Buy → Sell | 5.5 → 2.4
SJM HOLDINGS (00880.HK)  +0.020 (+0.926%)    Short selling $4.33M; Ratio 27.195%   | Neutral → Sell | 2.9 → 1.6
(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2025-05-02 16:25.) (Real-time Streaming US Stocks Quote; Except All OTC quotes are at least 15 minutes delayed.)