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<Research>JPM Expects JD-SW (09618.HK) to gain ~5% Mkt Shr in CN Food Delivery Mkt in 2025/ 2026; Subsidy Strategy Won't Be Sustainable
Shares of MEITUAN-W (03690.HK) and JD-SW (09618.HK) have underperformed the KraneShares Trust KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB.US) benchmark over the past month, due mostly...
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<Research>JPM Expects JD-SW (09618.HK) to gain ~5% Mkt Shr in CN Food Delivery Mkt in 2025/ 2026; Subsidy Strategy Won't Be Sustainable
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Shares of MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)  +2.200 (+1.688%)    Short selling $446.69M; Ratio 11.741%   and JD-SW (09618.HK)  +4.200 (+3.284%)    Short selling $179.61M; Ratio 7.733%   have underperformed the KraneShares Trust KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB.US)      benchmark over the past month, due mostly to investor concerns about JD-SW's aggressive entrance into China's food delivery market and potential reaction from MEITUAN-W, in its view, JPMorgan released a research report saying.

The broker expected JD-SW's entry to have minimal impact on the current market structure, where MEITUAN-W/ Ele.me currently hold 75%/ 25% of the market share each. JPMorgan also estimated JD-SW's entrance to China's food delivery market to gain about 5% market share in 2025 and 2026, with delivery volume/ market share increasing to 10% by the end of 2025 but dropping in 2026.

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Therefore, JPMorgan kept ratings at Overweight on MEITUAN-W and JD-SW, but preferred MEITUAN-W in the short term. The broker slashed its target prices for MEITUAN-W/ JD-SW from $190/ $215 to $165/ $180.

Although JD-SW quickly grabbed a 5% market share in China's food delivery market in just two months, JPMorgan believed that JD-SW's deeply subsidized growth strategy is unsustainable due to the relatively large losses from food delivery business to its group profit; and the difficulty in fully offsetting the loss of food delivery from cross-sell activities.
(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2025-05-02 16:25.) (Real-time Streaming US Stocks Quote; Except All OTC quotes are at least 15 minutes delayed.)

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