Due to weak demand and increased supply, China's spot benchmark thermal coal prices have fallen to their lowest level in four years, BOCI released a report indicating.

In BOCI's estimate, coal prices will not rebound in the next two months given the high inventory levels. Meanwhile, the situation for coking coal will be even worse with benchmark prices sinking to their lowest level in nearly eight years.

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As a result, BOCI sharply cut its coal price forecast, predicting that the average spot prices for benchmark thermal coal and coking coal will wane by 17% and 35% YoY, respectively. It will be inevitable for coal producers' earnings to experience a nosedive again.

BOCI reiterated a Neutral rating on the coal industry. CHINA SHENHUA (01088.HK)  -0.050 (-0.171%)    Short selling $18.89M; Ratio 12.352%   was the only company in the industry that received a Buy rating from the broker.

Stock | Investment Rating | Target Price
CHINA COAL (01898.HK)  +0.010 (+0.125%)    Short selling $2.41M; Ratio 30.093%   | Hold | $8.54 → $7.39
CHINA SHENHUA (01088.HK)  -0.050 (-0.171%)    Short selling $18.89M; Ratio 12.352%   | Buy | $40.34 → $38.64
SHOUGANG RES (00639.HK)  +0.010 (+0.407%)    Short selling $452.88K; Ratio 12.599%   | Hold | $2.44 → $2.36
YANKUANG ENERGY (01171.HK)  +0.020 (+0.247%)    Short selling $10.36M; Ratio 43.723%   | Buy → Hold | $12.59 → $9
(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2025-05-02 12:25.)

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