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MENGNIU DAIRY Gains 3%+ Against Mkt as M Stanley Forecasts Shares to Rise in Absolute Terms Over Next 15 Days
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MENGNIU DAIRY (02319.HK) last quoted at HKD16.38, up 3.08%, with trading volume of 13.0655 million shares, involving HKD211 million.

Morgan Stanley forecast MENGNIU DAIRY's share price to rise in absolute terms over the next 15 days, assigning a 70-80% probability (or “highly likely”) to this scenario.

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The broker noted that the recent pullback in the company's share price has made its short-term valuation more appealing. Although the market had previously been concerned about a potential weakening in its short-term sales trend, the broker believes that the YTD trend remains in line with the company's goal of stabilizing its UHT milk business and achieving growth, while other product categories are growing at a faster pace.

Morgan Stanley added that due to calendar effects (the Dragon Boat Festival falls on May 31, 2025 and June 19, 2026) and price changes in Milk Deluxe in May 2025, May 2026 will face an unfavorable comparison base. However, its channel checks indicate that liquid milk still recorded positive growth in May, albeit moderating from April under a high base.

The rating on MENGNIU DAIRY was Overweight, with a TP of HKD20.

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