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<Research>UBS Estimates CN Telecom VAT Hike to Impact Earnings of China Mobile/ China Telecom/ China Unicom by 9%/ 18%/ 18%+
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China's three major telecom operators announced a VAT adjustment yesterday (1st), according to a UBS research report. Starting from January 1, 2026, the business tax rate for mobile data, SMS/ MMS, and internet broadband services will be increased from 6% to 9%.

In UBS' estimate, this adjustment will gravely dent the earnings of the three Chinese telecom giants, as the revenues from the above-mentioned services accounted for 45-60% of their estimated service revenues in 2025.

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UBS expects the VAT hike to affect the service revenues of telecom operators by around 1.5-2%. Assuming a corporate income tax rate of 25% and without considering other cost or tax deduction measures, the net profit of CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK), CHINA TELECOM (00728.HK), and CHINA UNICOM (00762.HK) will be impacted by around 9%, 17.9%, and 18.2%, respectively, based on the 2025 net profit forecast.
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