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<Research>JPM Keeps Positive Outlook on HSBC HOLDINGS; HK Commercial Real Estate Risk May Have Peaked
Recommend
12
Positive
33
Negative
14
JPMorgan has released a research report reiterating a positive outlook on HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK).

During its recent financial tour in Hong Kong, JPMorgan noticed HSBC HOLDINGS' strong wealth growth and potential synergies with HANG SENG BANK (00011.HK), the improving operating environment in both the Hong Kong and UK markets, including the recovery of the Hong Kong residential market and consolidation in the UK market, and the slightly better situation in Hong Kong's commercial real estate.

JPMorgan rated HSBC HOLDINGS as Overweight and raised its target price for December 2026 from HKD132 to HKD138. The broker also stressed its preference for HSBC HOLDINGS and STANCHART (02888.HK) over local Hong Kong banks.

From JPMorgan's perspective, the risk in Hong Kong's commercial real estate may have peaked, and the expected credit loss rate for 2026 may be lower than in 2025. Seeing rising risks in China's commercial real estate, however, the broker estimates HSBC HOLDINGS to provision for some expected credit losses in 2026. Accordingly, it kept the bank's credit cost assumptions for 2026-27 at 45 bps.
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